The impact of uncertainty shocks: firm level estimation and a 9/11 simulation

Bloom, Nick (2006) The impact of uncertainty shocks: firm level estimation and a 9/11 simulation. CEPDP, 718. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. ISBN 0753019442

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Abstract

Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in employment, investment and productivity, and a moderate loss in GDP. This temporary impact of a second moment shock is different from the typically persistent impact of a first moment shock, highlighting the importance for policymakers of identifying their relative magnitudes in major shocks. The simulation of an uncertainty shock is then compared to actual 9/11 data, displaying a surprisingly good match.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://cep.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information:	© 2006 Nick Bloom
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Labor, investment, uncertainty, real options
Library of Congress subject classification:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Journal of Economic Literature Classification System:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E22 - Capital; Investment (including Inventories); Capacity D - Microeconomics > D9 - Intertemporal Choice and Growth > D92 - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
Sets:	Collections > Economists Online Research centres and groups > Centre for Economic Performance (CEP)
Rights:	http://www.lse.ac.uk/library/rights/LSERO.htm
Identification Number:	718
URL:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/19867/

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