Endogenous mobility in pandemics: theory and evidence from the United States

Chen, Xiaoguang, Huang, Hanwei, Ju, Jiandong, Sun, Ruoyan and Zhang, Jialiang (2024) Endogenous mobility in pandemics: theory and evidence from the United States. CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP1981). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing," endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion...
Additional Information:	©2024 The Author(s)
Divisions:	Economics Grantham Research Institute
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis D - Microeconomics > D9 - Intertemporal Choice and Growth > D91 - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I12 - Health Production: Nutrition, Mortality, Morbidity, Suicide, Substance Abuse and Addiction, Disability, and Economic Behavior I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R13 - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
Date Deposited:	19 Feb 2025 17:18
Last Modified:	19 Feb 2025 17:30
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/126830

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