The allocation of talent over the business cycle and its effect on sectoral productivity

Boehm, Michael J. and Watzinger, Martin (2012) The allocation of talent over the business cycle and its effect on sectoral productivity. CEP Discussion Papers (CEPDP1143). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance, London, UK.

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Abstract

It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In this article, we examine the impact of this reallocation for long-term productivity and output across sectors. We develop a model in which talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms. We find evidence for the predicted change in productivity caused by the business cycle in a setting where output can be readily measured: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion...
Additional Information:	© 2012 The Author(s)
Divisions:	LSE Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification:	J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education > I23 - Higher Education Research Institutions J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J23 - Employment Determination; Job Creation; Demand for Labor; Self-Employment
Date Deposited:	20 Feb 2024 16:00
Last Modified:	20 Feb 2024 16:00
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/121927

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