Data snooping, technical trading, rule performance, and the bootstrap

Sullivan, Ryan, Timmermann, Allan and White, Halbert (1998) Data snooping, technical trading, rule performance, and the bootstrap. Financial Markets Group Discussion Papers (303). Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

In this paper we utilize White's Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1997)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data-snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect in the context of the full universe from which the trading rules were drawn. Hence, for the first time, the paper presents a comprehensive test of performance across all technical trading rules examined. We consider the study of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), expand their universe of 26 trading rules, apply the rules to 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and determine the effects of data-snooping.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	https://www.fmg.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 1998 The Authors
Divisions:	Financial Markets Group
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation and Selection C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C63 - Computational Techniques G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
Date Deposited:	05 Jul 2023 23:04
Last Modified:	16 Sep 2023 00:03
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/119144

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