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The missing risks of climate change

Rising, James, Tedesco, Marco, Piontek, Franziska and Stainforth, David A. ORCID: 0000-0001-6476-733X (2022) The missing risks of climate change. Nature, 610. 643–651. ISSN 0028-0836

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The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. We argue that these unquantified, poorly understood, and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing due to (a) delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, (b) spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, (c) feedbacks and interactions between risks, (d) deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and (e) currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an qpproach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way which accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © Springer 2022.
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 09 Nov 2022 17:45
Last Modified: 06 Dec 2023 12:03

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