Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Grade expectations: how well can past performance predict future grades?

Wyness, Gill, Macmillan, Lindsey, Anders, Jake and Dilnot, Catherine (2022) Grade expectations: how well can past performance predict future grades? Education Economics. ISSN 0964-5292

[img] Text (Grade expectations how well can past performance predict future grades) - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (2MB)

Identification Number: 10.1080/09645292.2022.2113861

Abstract

Students in the UK apply to university with teacher-predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. These predictions have been shown to be inaccurate, and to favour certain groups, leading to concerns about teacher bias. We ask whether it is possible to improve on the accuracy of teachers’ predictions by predicting pupil achievement using prior attainment data and machine learning techniques. While our models do lead to a quantitative improvement on teacher predictions, substantial inaccuracies remain. Our models also underpredict high-achieving state school pupils and low socio-economic status pupils, suggesting they have more volatile education trajectories. This raises questions about the use of predictions in the UK system.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/cede20
Additional Information: © 2022 The Author(s).
Subjects: L Education > LB Theory and practice of education
Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2022 23:22
Last Modified: 17 May 2024 05:57
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/116912

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics