Tax evasion as contingent debt

Kotsogiannis, Christos and Mateos-Planas, Xavier (2019) Tax evasion as contingent debt. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2019-03). Centre For Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

Text (CFMDP2019-03-Paper) - Published Version Download (1MB)

Abstract

This paper studies income-tax evasion in a quantitative incomplete-markets setting with heterogeneous agents. A central aspect is that, realistically, evaded taxes are a form of contingent debt. Since evasion becomes part of a portfolio decision, risk and credit considerations play a central part in shaping it. The model calibrated to match estimated average levels of evasion does a good job in producing observed cross-sectional average evasion rates that decline with age and with earnings. The model also delivers implications for how evasion varies in the cross sectional distribution of wealth and tax arrears. Evasion has substantial effects on macroeconomic variables and welfare, and agent heterogeneity and general equilibrium are very important elements in the explanation. The analysis also considers the response of evasion to a flat-tax policy reform. In spite of the direct incentives to evade less under a flat tax rate, the reform causes households to save more, rendering the change in overall evasion modest.

Item Type:	Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL:	http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information:	© 2019 The Authors
Divisions:	Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E20 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents > H30 - General
Date Deposited:	05 Jun 2019 09:24
Last Modified:	15 Sep 2023 23:46
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/100941

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