Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

Comparing strategies for estimating constituency opinion from national survey samples

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Benjamin E. and Vivyan, Nick (2018) Comparing strategies for estimating constituency opinion from national survey samples. Political Science Research and Methods, 6 (3). pp. 571-591. ISSN 2049-8470

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Identification Number: 10.1017/psrm.2015.79

Abstract

Political scientists interested in estimating how public opinion varies by constituency have developed several strategies for supplementing limited constituency survey data with additional sources of information. We present two evaluation studies in the previously unexamined context of British constituency-level opinion: an external validation study of party vote share in the 2010 general election and a cross-validation of opinion toward the European Union. We find that most of the gains over direct estimation come from the inclusion of constituency-level predictors, which are also the easiest source of additional information to incorporate. Individual-level predictors combined with post-stratification particularly improve estimates from unrepresentative samples, and geographic local smoothing can compensate for weak constituency-level predictors. We argue that these findings are likely to be representative of applications of these methods where the number of constituencies is large.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-...
Additional Information: © 2016 The European Political Science Association
Divisions: Methodology
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Sets: Departments > Methodology
Date Deposited: 20 Aug 2018 09:25
Last Modified: 20 Nov 2019 05:43
Projects: ES/K003666/1
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/90020

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics