Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system

Hu, Bo (2018) Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system. Health Economics, Policy and Law. ISSN 1744-1331

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Abstract

The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/health-eco...
Additional Information:	© 2018 Cambridge University Press
Divisions:	Personal Social Services Research Unit
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2018 13:29
Last Modified:	29 Mar 2024 02:27
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/89391

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