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Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment

Helgeson, Casey ORCID: 0000-0001-5333-9954, Bradley, Richard ORCID: 0000-0003-2184-7844 and Hill, Brian (2018) Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment. Climatic Change. ISSN 0165-0009

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6


Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2018 The Author(s)
Divisions: Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2018 12:02
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2024 01:30
Projects: GEO-1240507, NE/P016367/1, AH/J006033/1, ANR-14-CE29-0003- 01
Funders: National Science Foundation, National Environmental Research Council, Arts and Humanities Research Council, L'Agence Nationale de la Recherche

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