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Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Hsiang, Soloman and Kopp, Robert and Jina, Amir and Rising, James and Delgado, Michael and Mohan, Shashank and Rasmussen, D. J. and Muir-Wood, Robert and Wilson, Paul and Oppenheimer, Michael and Larsen, Kate and Houser, Trevor (2017) Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science, 356 (6345). pp. 1362-1369. ISSN 0036-8075

Full text not available from this repository.
Identification Number: 10.1126/science.aal4369

Abstract

Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/
Additional Information: © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 21 May 2018 11:04
Last Modified: 21 May 2018 11:04
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/88025

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