Surminski, Swenja, Di Mauro, Manuela, Baglee, Alastair, Connell, Richenda, Hankinson, Joel, Haworth, Anna, Ingirige, Bingunath and Proverbs, David
(2018)
Assessing climate risks across different businesses and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376 (2121).
ISSN 1364-503X
Abstract
Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to mitigate their effects. This however represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. Risks to businesses are further complicated by aspects such as the nature of the value chain creation, the location of the business and relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers. This research explores these methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A desk-based review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies, and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3.
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