On the stability of euro area money demand and its implications for monetary policy

Barigozzi, Matteo (2018) On the stability of euro area money demand and its implications for monetary policy. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 80 (4). pp. 755-787. ISSN 0305-9049

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Abstract

On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demandand its Implications for Monetary PolicyFebruary 27, 2018AbstractWe employ a recent time-varying cointegration test to revisit the usefulness of long-runmoney demand equations for the ECB, addressing the issue of their instability by meansof a model evaluation exercise. Building on the results, we make a twofold contribution.First, we propose a novel stable money demand equation relying on two crucial factors:a speculative motive, represented by domestic and foreign price-earnings ratios, and aprecautionary motive, measured by changes in unemployment. Second, we use the modelto derive relevant policy implications for the ECB, since excess liquidity looks more usefulfor forecasting stock market busts than future inflation. Overall, this evidence pointsto (i) a possible evolution of the monetary pillar in the direction of pursuing financialstability and (ii) the exclusion of a sudden liquidity–driven inflationary burst after theexit from the prolonged period of unconventional monetary measures.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/14680084
Additional Information:	© John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford
Divisions:	Statistics
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
JEL classification:	C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Econometric Methods: Multiple; Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables; Endogenous Regressors > C32 - Time-Series Models E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E41 - Demand for Money E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
Date Deposited:	19 Mar 2018 13:46
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 21:34
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/87283

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