Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote

Born, Benjamin, Müller, Gernot J., Schularick, Moritz and Sedlacek, Petr (2017) The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote. CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2017-38). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
Download (426kB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper introduces a data-driven, transparent and unbiased method to calculate the economic costs of the Brexit vote in June 2016. We let a matching algorithm determine a combination of comparison economies that best resembles the growth path of the UK economy before the Brexit referendum. The economic cost of the Brexit vote is the difference in output between the UK economy and and its synthetic doppelganger. We show that, contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018. We provide evidence that heightened policy uncertainty has already taken a toll on investment and consumption.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Discussio...
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations; International Trade Organizations
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2018 09:28
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2019 23:04
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/87174

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics