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Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models

Harrison, Ricahrd (2014) Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2014-29). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

Simulations of forward guidance in rational expectations models should be assessed using the “modest interventions” framework introduced by Eric Leeper and Tao Zha. That is, the estimated effects of a policy intervention should be considered reliable only if that intervention is unlikely to trigger a revision in private sector beliefs about the way that policy will be conducted. I show how to constrain simulations of forward guidance to ensure that they are regarded as modest policy interventions and illustrate the technique using a medium-scale DSGE model estimated on US data. I find that, in many cases, experiments that generate the large responses of macroeconomic variables that many economists deem implausible – the so-called “forward guidance puzzle” – would not be viewed as modest policy interventions by the agents in the model. Those experiments should therefore be treated with caution, since they may prompt agents to believe that there has been a change in the monetary policy regime that is not accounted for within the model. More reliable results can be obtained by constraining the experiment to be a modest policy intervention. The quantitative effects on macroeconomic variables are more plausible in these cases.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2014 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 14 Dec 2017 13:41
Last Modified: 23 Aug 2020 23:07
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86327

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