Caselli, Francesco ORCID: 0009-0001-5191-7156
(2015)
Experience-biased technical change.
CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2015-17).
Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.
Abstract
The baby-boom cycle has caused very large swings in the relative supply of experienced workers (Örst a large decline, and then a large increase). Yet, the experience premium has failed to decline markedly in the period where the supply of experience has increased. I develop a methodology to estimate the increase in the relative demand for experience that is required to reconcile the behavor of prices and quantities, and show this to have been large - a phenomenon I dub experience-biased technical change. I conjecture that one of the drivers of experience-biased technical change is a decline in the relative demand for physical strength. In support this conjecture, I show that occupations requiring high or moderate physical strength have accounted for a declining share of weeks worked in the economy, with sedentary occupations experiencing a corresponding increase. I also conÖrm that older workers have a comparative disadvantage in occupations requiring physical strength.
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