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Models, inattention and expectation updates

Giacomini, Raffaella, Skreta, Vasiliki and Turen, Javier (2016) Models, inattention and expectation updates. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2016-02). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

We formulate a theory of expectation updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey dataset where agents can update at any time while observing each other’s expectations. Agents use heterogeneous models and can be inattentive but, when updating, they follow Bayes’ rule and assign homogeneous weights to public information. Our empirical findings suggest that agents do not herd and, despite disagreement, they place high faith in their models, whereas during a crisis they lose this faith and undergo a paradigm shift. This simple, “micro-founded” theory could enhance the explanatory power of macroeconomic and finance models.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2016 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D80 - General
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2017 10:57
Last Modified: 06 Sep 2019 23:27
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86245

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