Sterk, Vincent (2016) The dark corners of the labor market. Staff Working Paper Series (CFM-DP2016-03). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.
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Abstract
Standard models predict that episodes of high unemployment are followed by recoveries. This paper shows, by contrast, that a large shock may set the economy on a path towards very high unemployment, with no recovery in sight. First, I estimate a reduced-form model of áows in the U.S. labor market, allowing for the possibility of multiple steady states. Next, I estimate a non-linear search and matching model, in which multiplicity of steady states may arise due to skill losses upon unemployment, following Pissarides (1992). In both cases, estimates imply a stable steady state with around 5 percent unemployment and an unstable one with around 10 percent unemployment. The search and matching model can explain observed job Önding rates remarkably well, due to its strong endogenous persistence mechanism.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
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| Official URL: | http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx |
| Additional Information: | © 2016 The Authors |
| Divisions: | Centre for Macroeconomics |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| JEL classification: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E24 - Macroeconomics: Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution (includes wage indexation) E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J23 - Employment Determination; Job Creation; Demand for Labor; Self-Employment |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Dec 2017 10:51 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Dec 2024 19:23 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86244 |
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