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Unsurprising shocks: information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission

Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia (2016) Unsurprising shocks: information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2016-13). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

This article studies the information content of monetary surprises, i.e. the reactions of financial markets to monetary policy announcements. We find that monetary surprises are predictable by past information, and can incorporate anticipatory effects. Surprises are decomposed into monetary policy shocks, forecast updates, and time-varying risk premia, all of which can change following the announcements. Hence, their use as identification devices is not warranted, and can have strong qualitative and quantitative implications for the estimated responses of variables to the shocks. We develop new measures for monetary policy shocks, independent of central banks’ forecasts and unpredictable by past information.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2016 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2017 09:47
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2019 23:55
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86234

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