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How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies

Diniz, Andre and Guimaraes, Bernardo (2017) How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2017-05). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

The deleterious effect of debt restructuring on banks’ balance sheets and, consequently, on the economy as a whole has been a key policy issue. This paper studies how post-default fiscal policy interacts with this sovereign-bank loop and shape the response of a model economy. Calibration of the model matches characteristics of the Greek economy at the time of the Bond Exchange. Debt restructuring in place of higher lump-sum taxation or non-productive government spending harms the economy even if no other cost of default is considered. However, the sovereign-debt loop is less costly to the economy than increases in labour or capital taxes to service debt. Even so, if fiscal policy is too responsive, a crowding-out effect inhibits the recovery of capital markets, hence a more conservative fiscal stance is desirable. Thus how diabolic the post-default sovereign-bank loop is depends to a large extent on the way fiscal policy responds

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy Formation, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance; Taxation
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems
H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt; Debt Management
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 12 Dec 2017 10:56
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2019 04:03
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86169

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