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The effect of news shocks and monetary policy

Gambetti, Luca, Korobilis, Dimitris, Tsoukalas, John D. and Zanetti, Francesco (2017) The effect of news shocks and monetary policy. CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2017-30). Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.

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Abstract

A VAR model estimated on U.S. data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline significantly, and durable spending rises significantly in the post-1980 period while the opposite short-run response is observed in the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the Federal Reserve has adopted a restrictive stance before the 1980s with the goal of retaining control over inflation while adopting a neutral/accommodative stance in the post-1980 period.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors
Divisions: Centre for Macroeconomics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E20 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)
Sets: Research centres and groups > Centre for Macroeconomics
Date Deposited: 11 Dec 2017 11:28
Last Modified: 29 Sep 2019 23:26
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/86145

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