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Local economic effects of Brexit

Dhingra, Swati, Machin, Stephen and Overman, Henry G. ORCID: 0000-0002-3525-7629 (2017) Local economic effects of Brexit. National Institute Economic Review, 242 (1). R24-R36. ISSN 0027-9501

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Identification Number: 10.1177/002795011724200112


This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors
Divisions: Economics
Geography & Environment
Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Date Deposited: 16 Nov 2017 14:25
Last Modified: 15 May 2024 20:48
Projects: ES/M010341/1
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council, European Research Council

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