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Asset volatility

Correia, Maria, Kang, Johnny and Richardson, Scott (2017) Asset volatility. Review of Accounting Studies. ISSN 1380-6653

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s11142-017-9431-1

Abstract

We examine whether fundamental measures of volatility are incremental to market based measures of volatility in (i) predicting bankruptcies (out of sample), (ii) explaining crosssectional variation in credit spreads, and (iii) explaining future credit excess returns. Our fundamental measures of volatility include (i) historical volatility in profitability, margins, turnover, operating income growth, and sales growth, (ii) dispersion in analyst forecasts of future earnings, and (iii) quantile regression forecasts of the interquartile range of the distribution of profitability. We find robust evidence that these fundamental measures of volatility improve out of sample forecasts of bankruptcy and are useful in explaining crosssectional variation in credit spreads. This suggests that an analysis of credit risk can be enhanced with a detailed analysis of fundamental information. As a test case of the benefit of volatility forecasting, we document an improved ability to forecast future credit excess returns, particularly when using fundamental measures of volatility.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://link.springer.com/journal/11142
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors © CC BY 4.0
Divisions: Accounting
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5601 Accounting
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting > M4 - Accounting and Auditing > M41 - Accounting
Sets: Departments > Accounting
Collections > Economists Online
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2017 14:27
Last Modified: 20 Feb 2019 12:17
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/84405

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