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Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015)

Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. and Papageorgiou, Theofanis and Christopoulos, Apostolos G. and Dokas, Ioannis G. and Michaelides, Panayotis G. (2017) Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015). Operational Research. ISSN 1109-2858

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s12351-017-0331-8

Abstract

Maritime transport has been a crucial input for the growth of the Greek economy given that the Greek fleet is one of largest merchant fleets in the world. However, the impact of the local and international business cycle on Greek maritime transport is inadequately researched, so far, in the literature. In this context, the present paper investigates the key determinants of maritime transport fluctuations in the three major ports of the Greek hinterland, taking into account a number of variables for the 1998–2015 time-span, capturing, at least partly, the global financial crisis and the local crisis, as well. To this end, various relevant quantitative techniques have been used, such as Granger causality, Dufour and Renault multistep causality and SURE system estimation. Our main finding is that Greek maritime transport traffic, as expressed through the cargo volumes of the three major ports of Piraeus, Volos and Thessaloniki, has not been influenced by the Greek business cycle, implying that the country’s maritime sector is practically independent of the macroeconomic conditions of the total economy. Clearly, future and more extended research would be relevant in the direction of applying the aforementioned approach to other EU countries of the Mediterranean.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://link.springer.com/journal/12351
Additional Information: © 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Sets: Research centres and groups > Systemic Risk Centre
Date Deposited: 13 Jul 2017 15:40
Last Modified: 02 Aug 2017 16:10
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/83540

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