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Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging

Bradley, Richard (2017) Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging. Theory and Decision. ISSN 0040-5833

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Identification Number: 10.1007/s11238-017-9615-y

Abstract

How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: https://link.springer.com/journal/11238
Additional Information: © 2017 The Author © CC BY 4.0
Divisions: Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
CPNSS
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
Sets: Departments > Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Research centres and groups > Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS)
Date Deposited: 09 Jun 2017 13:36
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2019 03:15
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/80762

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