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New election prediction: Macron will win, but the race will be closer than opinion polls suggest

Vukovic, Vuk and Lahdelma, Ilona (2017) New election prediction: Macron will win, but the race will be closer than opinion polls suggest. LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog (06 May 2017). Blog Entry.

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Abstract

Opinion polls suggest Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the French presidential election, but given the surprise results in the UK’s Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election, how certain can we be of the result? Outlining findings from a new prediction model, Vuk Vukovic and Ilona Lahdelma discuss the precision of French pollsters in calling the first round, and why their survey predicts a narrower race than most opinion polls, with Macron still emerging on top.

Item Type: Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/
Additional Information: © 2017 The Author(s); Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JC Political theory
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Sets: Collections > LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 09 May 2017 09:23
Last Modified: 01 Apr 2019 23:24
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/76079

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