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Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach

Dietrich, Franz and List, Christian (2017) Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. Part two: the premise-based approach. Social Choice and Welfare, 48 (4). pp. 787-814. ISSN 0176-1714

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Identification Number: 0.1007/s00355-017-1035-y


How can several individuals’ probability functions on a given σσ -algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem usually require ‘event-wise independence’: the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals’ probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be ‘basic’ and others ‘derivative’, so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a ‘premise-based’ approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the ‘premises’.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors © CC BY 4.0
Divisions: Government
Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > B Philosophy (General)
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2017 15:51
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2021 00:59
Projects: ANR-12-INEG-0006-01, MRF-2012-100
Funders: Ludwig Lachmann Fellowship at the LSE, French Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Leverhulme Major Research Fellowship, Harsanyi Fellowship at the Australian National University, Canberra

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