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Did the Treasury get it right? Putting a figure on the cost of a Brexit

Dhingra, Swati, Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., Sampson, Thomas and Van Reenen, John ORCID: 0000-0001-9153-2907 (2016) Did the Treasury get it right? Putting a figure on the cost of a Brexit. LSE Brexit (22 Apr 2016). Website.

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The Treasury has released a report which analyses the economic impact of leaving the EU and estimates that it could lead to a 6.2% fall in GDP (£4,300 per household). In a briefing paper for the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John van Reenen analyse the report and conclude it is a serious contribution to the debate. Their major criticism is that the Treasury have been overly cautious in their assumptions for their central case (a negotiated bilateral agreement, like the Canadian trade deal) and the true long-run costs of a Brexit are likely to be higher than they estimate. In this extract, they address some of the criticisms made of the Treasury’s analysis.

Item Type: Online resource (Website)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2016 The Author(s)
Divisions: Economics
Centre for Economic Performance
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Date Deposited: 10 Apr 2017 13:00
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2023 20:34

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