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History suggests the UK will vote to stay in the EU… but only just

Qvotrup, Matt (2016) History suggests the UK will vote to stay in the EU… but only just. LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog (21 Apr 2016). Website.

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Abstract

Will the UK Brexit or Bremain? Presenting an analysis of all 49 of the referendums on EU-related issues that have taken place since 1972, Matt Qvotrup states that the three main factors likely to influence the final vote’s result are the UK’s levels of inflation and economic growth (which both show a positive correlation with a vote for the status quo), and the number of years spent in office by the government (which has a negative correlation with support for the status quo). Using these factors, he calculates that Britain will vote to stay in the EU, but only by the narrowest of margins.

Item Type: Online resource (Website)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/
Additional Information: © 2016 The Author(s); Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: D History General and Old World > D History (General)
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
J Political Science > JC Political theory
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Sets: Collections > LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 24 Mar 2017 10:13
Last Modified: 22 May 2020 23:21
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/70566

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