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Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Clarke, Harold D., Goodwin, Matthew and Whiteley, Paul (2016) Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong. LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog (12 Jul 2016). Website.

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Abstract

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain over the entire last month of the campaign – and possibly throughout 2016.

Item Type: Online resource (Website)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/
Additional Information: © 2016 The Author(s); Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN101 Great Britain
Sets: Collections > LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 23 Mar 2017 11:50
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2019 23:22
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/70407

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