Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong

Clarke, Harold D., Goodwin, Matthew and Whiteley, Paul (2016) Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong. British Politics and Policy at LSE (05 Jul 2016). Website.

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Abstract

By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain over the entire last month of the campaign – and possibly throughout 2016.

Item Type:	Online resource (Website)
Official URL:	http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/
Additional Information:	© 2016 The Authors © CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2017 13:41
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2024 15:01
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/69139

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