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Forecasting the density of asset returns

Niguez, Trino-Manuel and Perote, Javier (2004) Forecasting the density of asset returns. EM, 479. Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Identification Number: 479

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a transformation of the Edgeworth-Sargan series expansion of the Gaussian distribution, that we call Positive Edgeworth-Sargan (PES). The main advantage of this new density is that it is well defined for all values in the parameter space, as well as it integrates up to one. We include an illustrative empirical application to compare its performance with other distributions, including the Gaussian and the Student’s t, to forecast the full density of daily exchange-rate returns by using graphical procedures. Our results show that the proposed function outperforms the other two models for density forecasting, then providing more reliable value-at-risk forecasts.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk
Additional Information: © 2004 Trino-Manuel niguez and Javier Perote
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General > C16 - Specific Distributions
Sets: Collections > Economists Online
Research centres and groups > Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD)
Date Deposited: 09 Jul 2008 14:31
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2010 08:58
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/6845

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