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Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Christodoulakis, Nicos (2016) Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949. Defence and Peace Economics, 27 (5). pp. 688-717. ISSN 1024-2694

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Identification Number: 10.1080/10242694.2014.1000010


Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2015 Taylor & Francis
Divisions: Hellenic Observatory
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DF Greece
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E23 - Production
N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, and Regulation > N44 - Europe: 1913-
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O52 - Europe
Date Deposited: 27 Oct 2016 12:16
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 02:20

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