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Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

Deryng, Delphine, Elliott, Joshua, Folberth, Christian, Müller, Christoph, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Boote, Kenneth J., Conway, Declan, Ruane, Alex C., Gerten, Dieter, Jones, James W., Khabarov, Nikolay, Olin, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Schmid, Erwin, Yang, Hong and Rosenzweig, Cynthia (2016) Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change, 6 (8). pp. 786-790. ISSN 1758-678X

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Identification Number: 10.1038/nclimate2995

Abstract

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1, 2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities.

Item Type: Article
Official URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/index.html
Additional Information: © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
Divisions: Grantham Research Institute
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Research centres and groups > Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Date Deposited: 01 Aug 2016 13:19
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2019 02:20
Projects: 01LS1201A, NE/L008785/1, SBEO0951576, GEOO1215910, 01LN1317A, 282672
Funders: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Natural Environment Research Council, National Science Foundation, BMBF, Formas Strong Research Environment, Seventh Framework Programme
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/67310

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