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The impact of migration on long-term European population trends, 1850 to present

Murphy, Michael (2016) The impact of migration on long-term European population trends, 1850 to present. Population and Development Review, 42 (2). 225 - 244. ISSN 0098-7921

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Identification Number: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00132.x


I estimate the impact of migration on population size in 11 European countries from the middle of the nineteenth century to the present. I derive estimates under the assumption of zero net migration from various points during this period using information from the Human Mortality Database. Disparate patterns are found among countries: net positive inflows for Switzerland and France, with the largest net outflows for Norway and Scotland. I develop methods to decompose population growth into estimates of net migration that include the contribution of descendants of migrants and natural increase. Migration has a substantial effect on population growth across these countries and tends to reduce disparities in growth rates. For most of the countries considered, population sizes would be smaller in 2000 if there had been no migration over the past 150 years, but more recent trends suggest a different future.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2016 The Population Council, Inc.
Divisions: Social Policy
Subjects: D History General and Old World > D History (General) > D901 Europe (General)
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2016 10:52
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2021 01:00

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