Lanz, Bruno, Dietz, Simon 
ORCID: 0000-0001-5002-018X and Swanson, Tim
(2017)
Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective.
International Economic Review, 58 (3).
pp. 973-1006.
ISSN 0020-6598
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Abstract
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ |
| Additional Information: | © 2017 John Wiley & Sons |
| Divisions: | Geography & Environment Grantham Research Institute Climate Change Economics and Policy |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory |
| Date Deposited: | 12 May 2016 08:10 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Sep 2024 07:18 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/66496 |
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