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Combining forecasts predicts a Democratic win in this year’s election

Graefe, Andreas (2016) Combining forecasts predicts a Democratic win in this year’s election. Impact of American Politics & Policy Blog (15 Mar 2016). Blog Entry.

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Abstract

With the 2016 presidential primary now well underway, many pundits and commentators are beginning to cast their minds towards the fall general election. But what is the best way to predict the outcome? Andreas Graefe argues that given the plethora of models and forecasting methods which are available, the best option is to combine all the approaches into one forecast. Using this combined approach – which has been accurate over the last three presidential elections – the PollyVote.com currently predicts that a Democrat would win nearly 53 percent of the two-party vote in November, while a Republican would gain just over 47 percent.

Item Type: Online resource (Blog Entry)
Official URL: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/
Additional Information: © 2016 LSE Impact of American Politics & Policy blog; Online
Divisions: LSE
Subjects: F History United States, Canada, Latin America > F001 United States local history
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Sets: Collections > LSE American Politics and Policy (USAPP) Blog
Date Deposited: 06 Apr 2016 15:34
Last Modified: 12 Apr 2019 23:14
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/65939

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