Dangerous demographics? The effect of urbanisation and metropolisation on African Civil wars, 1961–2010

Schulz, Nicolai (2015) Dangerous demographics? The effect of urbanisation and metropolisation on African Civil wars, 1961–2010. Civil Wars, 17 (3). pp. 291-317. ISSN 1369-8249

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Abstract

Whether urbanisation promotes or inhibits the risk of civil war is disputed: while case studies usually support the former, quantitative investigations have found either the latter or no significant correlation at all. I argue that this contradiction is due to a conceptual and operational over-aggregation of urbanisation, ignoring its intrastate variation. I claim that a high relative concentration of the urban population and political, economic and social institutions in the largest city – so-called metropolisation – can increase both the motivation for and the feasibility of rebellion in a country. Triangulating case study evidence with a quantitative cross-national time series design, I show that metropolisation significantly and robustly increases the risk of governmental conflict in particular and hence civil war in general.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fciv20
Additional Information:	© 2015 Taylor & Francis
Divisions:	International Development
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Date Deposited:	18 Dec 2015 13:32
Last Modified:	14 Nov 2024 08:36
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/64761

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