If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years

Accominotti, Olivier ORCID: 0009-0005-2682-5064 and Chambers, David (2016) If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years. Journal of Economic History, 76 (2). 342 - 386. ISSN 0022-0507

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Abstract

This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.

Item Type:	Article
Official URL:	http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJourna...
Additional Information:	© 2016 The Economic History Association
Divisions:	Economic History
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
JEL classification:	F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G15 - International Financial Markets N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions > N22 - U.S.; Canada: 1913- N - Economic History > N2 - Financial Markets and Institutions > N24 - Europe: 1913-
Date Deposited:	16 Dec 2015 10:15
Last Modified:	01 Nov 2024 04:24
Funders:	Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management, Judge Business School, Cambridge University
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/64722

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