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Why aid is unpredictable: an empirical analysis of the gap between actual and planned aid flows

Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier, Neumayer, Eric ORCID: 0000-0003-2719-7563 and Nunnenkamp, Peter (2015) Why aid is unpredictable: an empirical analysis of the gap between actual and planned aid flows. Journal of International Development, 27 (4). pp. 440-463. ISSN 0954-1748

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Identification Number: 10.1002/jid.3073


Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Divisions: Geography & Environment
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HS Societies secret benevolent etc
H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology
Date Deposited: 04 Jun 2015 11:16
Last Modified: 01 Jun 2024 03:33

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