Plantin, Guillaume and Song Shin, Hyun
(2014)
Destabilizing carry trades.
Systemic Risk Centre Discussion Papers (17).
Systemic Risk Centre, The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Abstract
We offer a model of currency carry trades in which carry traders earn positive excess returns if they successfully coordinate on supplying excessive capital to a target economy. The interest-rate differential between their funding currency and the target currency is their coordination device. We solve for a unique equilibrium that exhibits the classic pattern of the carry-trade recipient currency appreciating for extended periods, punctuated by sharp falls.
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