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The effect on fertility of the 2003-2011 war in Iraq

Cetorelli, Valeria ORCID: 0000-0002-7310-6557 (2014) The effect on fertility of the 2003-2011 war in Iraq. Population and Development Review, 40 (4). pp. 581-604. ISSN 0098-7921

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Identification Number: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00001.x


This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003–2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I-MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less-educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.

Item Type: Article
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2014 The Population Council, Inc.
Divisions: Social Policy
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
H Social Sciences > HQ The family. Marriage. Woman
Date Deposited: 12 Jan 2015 15:10
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2024 06:06

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