Asking voters who they think will win is one of the mostaccurate methods for forecasting elections available

Graefe, Andreas (2014) Asking voters who they think will win is one of the mostaccurate methods for forecasting elections available. LSE American Politics and Policy (28 Oct 2014). Website.

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Abstract

For decades political pollsters have relied on questions about people’s voting intention in order to predict who will win an election. But what about asking voters about their expectation of which party will win? In new research Andreas Graefe analyzes the accuracy of expectation-based forecasts in presidential elections from 1988 to 2012. He finds that such forecasts are, on average, more accurate at forecasting the election’s outcome than four more established methods.

Item Type:	Online resource (Website)
Official URL:	http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/
Additional Information:	© 2014 The Author
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Date Deposited:	27 Nov 2014 10:20
Last Modified:	13 Sep 2024 19:08
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/60295

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