Cookies?
Library Header Image
LSE Research Online LSE Library Services

The challenge of restoring debt sustainability in a deep economic recession: the case of Greece

Monokroussos, Platon (2014) The challenge of restoring debt sustainability in a deep economic recession: the case of Greece. GreeSE papers (87). The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

[img]
Preview
PDF - Published Version
Download (961kB) | Preview

Abstract

The present paper studies the evolution of the Greek public debt ratio under different assumptions regarding the size and the degree of persistence of fiscal multiplies, the implementation profile of the applied fiscal adjustment and the response of financial markets to fiscal consolidation. The main results of our simulation exercise can be summarized as follows: a) taking into account Greece’s present debt ratio, a fiscal adjustment can lead to a contemporaneous increase in the ratio if the fiscal multiplier is higher than ca 0.5; b) despite the unprecedented improvement in the underlying fiscal position since 2010, the concomitant increase in the public debt ratio can be mainly attributed to its high initial level, a very wide initial structural deficit as well as the ensuing economic recession; c) notwithstanding its negative initial effects on domestic economic activity, the enormous fiscal effort undertaken over the last 5 years leaves the country’s debt ratio in a more sustainable path relative to a range of alternative scenarios assuming no adjustment or a more gradual implementati

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/he...
Additional Information: © 2014 The Author
Divisions: European Institute
Hellenic Observatory
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Sets: Departments > European Institute
Research centres and groups > Hellenic Observatory
Collections > GreeSE: Hellenic Observatory papers on Greece and Southeast Europe
Date Deposited: 09 Oct 2014 09:12
Last Modified: 30 Jun 2020 23:07
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/59668

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics