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Tracking unemployment in Wales through recession and into recovery

Artis, Michael and Sensier, Marianne (2011) Tracking unemployment in Wales through recession and into recovery. SERC Discussion Papers, SERCDP0079. The London School of Economics and Political Science ,SERC Discussion Paper, London, UK.

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Identification Number: SERCDP0079

Abstract

This paper assesses turning points in the economic cycle of Welsh unitary authorities by applying a mathematical algorithm to the claimant count unemployment data. All but one unitary authority has now emerged from recession (Anglesey being the exception). We also date the business cycle for the UK and country-level employment data and Wales has emerged from recession but Scotland is yet to exit recession. We estimate a logistic model which utilises housing sector and survey data to forecast the Welsh employment cycle. The model predicts that employment in Wales will continue to grow into 2011.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://rlab.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/abstract.a...
Additional Information: © 2011 The Authors
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Sets: Research centres and groups > Spatial Economics Research Centre
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2014 13:10
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2014 13:10
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG), Welsh Government
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/59248

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