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Beyond zeroes and ones: the effect of income on the severity and evolution of civil conflict

Chaudoin, Stephen, Peskowitz, Zachary and Stanton, Christopher (2012) Beyond zeroes and ones: the effect of income on the severity and evolution of civil conflict. Working Papers Series. Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Identification Number: 10.2139/ssrn.2135780


We assess risk factors affecting the severity and dynamics of civil wars, departing from analyses focused primarily on static models of the effect of income on the extensive margin of conflict. Civil conflicts are shown to be persistent, but rarely do they become more severe in response to past fighting. Substantial heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion is documented: severe fighting lasts longest in poor countries and ethnically fractionalized countries.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2014 The Authors
Divisions: Management
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
J Political Science > JC Political theory
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, and Regulation > N40 - General, International, or Comparative
Date Deposited: 18 Aug 2014 11:08
Last Modified: 16 May 2024 11:58

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