Oulton, Nicholas 
ORCID: 0000-0002-1595-7732
(2013)
Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermathof the financial crisis.
CFM discussion paper series (CFM-DP2013-7).
Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK.
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Abstract
In this paper I argue that the financial crisis is likely to have a long term impact on the level of labour productivity in the UK while leaving the long run growth rate unaffected. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP per hour in the market sector to be 2.61% p.a. Based on a cross-country panel analysis of 61 countries over 1950-2010, the permanent reduction in the level of GDP per worker resulting from the crisis could be substantial, about 5½%. The cross-country evidence also suggests that there are permanent effects on employment, implying a possibly even larger hit to the level of GDP per capita of about 9%.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Discussion Paper) |
|---|---|
| Official URL: | http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx |
| Additional Information: | © 2013 The Author |
| Divisions: | Centre for Macroeconomics |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| JEL classification: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H62 - Deficit; Surplus J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Time Allocation, Work Behavior, and Employment Determination and Creation; Human Capital; Retirement > J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Jul 2014 14:23 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2024 20:26 |
| URI: | http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/58239 |
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