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The incidence of civil war: theory and evidence

Besley, Timothy and Persson, Torsten (2009) The incidence of civil war: theory and evidence. Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers (EOPP 005). Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London, UK.

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This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel empirical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.

Item Type: Monograph (Report)
Official URL:
Additional Information: © 2009 The Authors
Divisions: STICERD
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Date Deposited: 24 Jul 2014 09:19
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2021 23:20
Funders: Economic and Social Research Council, Swedish Research Council, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)

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