Policy analysis with incredible certitude

Manski, Charles F. (2011) Policy analysis with incredible certitude. Public Economics Programme Papers (PEP 10). Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London, UK.

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Abstract

Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, duelling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude, and media overreach.>

Item Type:	Monograph (Report)
Official URL:	http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/
Additional Information:	© 2011 The Author
Divisions:	LSE
Subjects:	J Political Science > JC Political theory
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2014 13:49
Last Modified:	20 Oct 2024 17:48
Projects:	SES-0911181
Funders:	National Science Foundation
URI:	http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/58177

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