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The conflict trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: an economic approach

Christodoulakis, Nicos (2014) The conflict trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: an economic approach. GreeSE papers (83). The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

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Abstract

The paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece between the Communist Party and the Centre-Right Government during 1946-1949. Using monthly data for battle casualties a dynamic Lotka-Volterra framework is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. To examine the extent to which the confrontation was influenced by socio-economic factors, a regional analysis finds that political discontent was mainly correlated with pre-war grievances rather than class-structure, while the mobilization of guerilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions by the Government. The economic cost of the conflict is estimated to be close to an annual GDP, and its effect to last for at least a decade, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The failure to prevent the conflict or stop its escalation is discussed together with some conclusions for the long term repercussions and the current social discontent in Greece.

Item Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Official URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/he...
Additional Information: © 2014 The Author
Divisions: European Institute
Hellenic Observatory
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DF Greece
JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods and Programming > C62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E23 - Production
N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, and Regulation > N44 - Europe: 1913-
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O52 - Europe
Sets: Departments > European Institute
Collections > Economists Online
Research centres and groups > Hellenic Observatory
Collections > GreeSE: Hellenic Observatory papers on Greece and Southeast Europe
Date Deposited: 24 Mar 2014 11:33
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2019 12:14
URI: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/56228

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